Thursday, 1 May 2014

Intermediate Macroeconomics



NOVA SOUTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY
H. Wayne Huizenga School
of Business and Entrepreneurship
ECN 3025 – Intermediate Macroeconomics

Data Exercise 2 Robert Hall On Economic Indicators

This exercise is designed to assess your ability to manipulate and analyze data in accordance with Course Competency: Locate, analyze, and interpret macroeconomic data.

Instructions:
·         Download and Read Professor Robert Hall, “Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces after a Financial Crisis?” http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.24.4.3

·         Put all of your work in one file;
·         Write your name in the header;
·         We need to see your work in Excel (i.e., formulas).  Do not copy and paste numbers from your original worksheet to a new worksheet.  When submitting, make sure that the cells in your worksheet show formulas.
·         After you finish the assignment, name your file LastnameDE2.xls (or .xlsx, depending on the version of Excel).  Note that you do not have to write the .xls suffix by yourself – Excel will do it automatically, and
·         Upload it to the Assignment Section of the Blackboard.

Background:
Over the business cycle, many macroeconomic data series move together.  The investment component of GDP is most volatile, and government expenditures typically increase during recessions to offset declines in private-sector expenditures.  However, each business cycle is caused by different reasons, and therefore, each business cycle is different.

Assignment:
You work as an analyst at an investment bank.  The CEO of the firm just came back from the Annual Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole.  He tells you that he listened to the presentation by Professor Robert Hall, who chairs the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Recession Dating Committee.  The CEO hands you the paper by Professor Hall, “Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces after a Financial Crisis?” (http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.24.4.3) and wants you to update the Figures 1 and 4 in the paper.  Specifically, Figure 1 plots the change of components of GDP from the second quarter (April-June) of 2008 on, and Figure 4 plots the yield spread between 20-year Treasury bond and Baa corporate bond from January 2008 on.

a.       You have to update the Figures 1 and 4 using the most recent data available.  Use Excel and create graphs similar to the Figures 1 and 4 using data up to the most recent period.  All data series are available at St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank’s FRED® (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/).  Download appropriate series in Excel.

·         To download data from FRED®, you have to register.

·         You have to use “real” series for all GDP-related data.  They are available quarterly.

·         You need the following quarterly series for figure 1:

Consumption:
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Nondurable Goods
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Services
Investment:
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Durable Goods
Real Gross Private Domestic Investment, 3 Decimal

Government:
Real Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment, 3 Decimal

Net Exports:
Real Net Exports of Goods & Services, 3 Decimal

·         Use the monthly series for the interest rates (figure 4):
20-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate
Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield

·         Since the oldest data you need for this exercise is from January 2008.  You may want to delete data prior to January 2008 to simplify your worksheet
·         You need to combine worksheets for figure 1 and figure 4 into one file.  To combine two files into one, use “Home-Format (Cells)-Move or Copy Sheet” and move one sheet to the other “book.”

Download and Read

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